By our model, the Eagles had a 64 percent chance of converting and a 91 percent chance of making the extra point. Broncos GM George Paton tells KOA that DreMont Jones will test free agency. He punted 74 times and 20 of those were downed inside the 10 with only three touchbacks. Given link-placeholder-0]' aversion to quarterback sneaks, Reich subbed backup QB [link-placeholder-1] into the game. Fantasy players are also awarded points for yardage gained, such as 1 point for every 10 yards gained rushing or receiving. Combining this play level classification with play level point attribution is the basis of nearly all the next-gen analysis being created in the NFL analysis community. You think people will think that they're getting 9.1 more potato chips or something? Adding together all the values for all potential outcomes yields the total Expected Points. But inside the opponents red zone, things start to get hazy. This dataset does not have classifications for formation or scheme, which means EPA based analysis typically doesn't have context for the degree of difficulty or intention of the play. Team to record the most first downs: Which of the two teams . The 44% chance of scoring is 18% chance of a FG and a 26% chance of a TD, based solely on starting field position. Stating FP wins games is the same as saying winning the TO battle wins games. Required fields are marked *. Touchdowns are the primary goal in football and they score the most points. EPA does have its limitations, most notably in its ability to measure individual performance. In reply to Re: A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone by Anonymous_me (not verified). Nearly every NFL team has at least one staff member crunching the numbers on these crucial situations over the course of a game. For instance on nfelo'sNFL Power Ratings, you'll see EPA broken out not just by Offense and Defense, but by Pass Offense, Pass Defense, Rush Offense, and Rush Defense: Beyond team evaluation, EPA can also be aggregated and averaged at the individual level to measure player performance.. For instance, EPA / dropback is a far better measure of a QBs contribution to the offense than passer rating or yards per pass: And a QBs EPA can be broken down even further based on different aspects of the position -- how many points did a QB lose to sacks and turnovers vs the league average? That said, there is something to that cringing feeling that we get from the running back described above. An amino-acid scoring matrix is a 20x20 table such that position indexed with amino-acids so that position X,Y in the table gives the score of aligning amino-acid X with amino-acid Y If you start on your own 20 yard line, you have a 20% chance and so on. This is why statistics needs good sample sizes. I'm trying to learn how to code better, and that totally confuses me. Field goal probability, which debuted in 2019, is also factored into the value of a field goal decision. Kickers are making 84.6 percent of field goals, the third-highest rate of all time. Field position matters. 2 49ers 27.6%. Anytime you are exchanging field position in the kicking game your cover team or fielding team must fight for every yard they can. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. In the scenarios where your team is deep in its own territory, it is crucial that the team is not only able to flip the field but be able to put points on the board on longer drives. Keegan Abdoo investigates this strength -- and whether it will give Philadelphia an edge over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. When the author is writing "The standard selection of plays on first through third down from the 1 results in a touchdown 88.9 percent of the time, but running on all three downs increases this to 90.4 percent -- a small but not insignificant difference," only pedantry can show that he's wrong. If someone said that a batter's chance of hitting a ball increased by 50% this year when it was .200 last year, would you think he's at .700 or .300? Conor McGovern is a lifelong Patriots fan who remembers days when trips to the red zone were rare enough that any bit of help for Tommy Hodson or Hugh Millen was a godsend. 97.2%. RELATED ARTICLE: PJ Fleck On Coaching Your Culture. By accepting all cookies, you agree to our use of cookies to deliver and maintain our services and site, improve the quality of Reddit, personalize Reddit content and advertising, and measure the effectiveness of advertising. Beginning around 1974, the ratio jumped to around 5 to 2. The GCA Probability Score was calculated for each patient A model based on just air yards is pretty accurate until the offense is approximately 25 yards away from scoring. EPA cant distinguish between a well run route and a well thrown ball. For a certain football team, the probability that this play is successful is 0.90. What are the odds of pinning your opponent deep if you punt from here? That makes it possible for the defense to block the kick, recover the ball, and score a touchdown. Coaches have been much more in line with the data here for years. If you've got the first down already, but you know you you're going to get hit if you go inside the 10 (and your coach doesn't like it when you get hit), it makes perfect sense to ease off and run out at the 12 instead. I think it would definitely be a mistake to coach ball carriers to do anything other than try for as many yards as possible. It's written in python 2.7 and you need to run "pip install nflgame" for it to work. The results are below: It is vital to make your Special Teams special because this play is the largest exchange of field position. In recent seasons, teams across the league have made significant strides in their embrace of numbers, using analytics as a tool to guide decision processes across the organization. If the ball is being caught after a pass, both feet must touch the ground with the ball in control from the receiver. It is not possible to measure TDs in a way to make them worth less than 6 points, unlike products, which be measured in multiple ways, eg, "This product is sold by weight, not by volume. Its the 2nd quarter at sea level, the score is tied at 7 and you have the ball 4th and 4 from your opponents 38 with 11 minutes to play in the quarter. But if someone says "A is 5% and B is 10%", then I would be comfortable saying "B is 5% greater than A" because the units are all the same (like "A is 5 Cars and B is 10 Cars, so B is 5 Cars greater than A"). 24. Special Teams and the fight for field position truly is one-third of the game. Touchdown or Field Goal/Safety. Instead, offenses generally either score or get stopped. In the second diagram is running blue and passing red? In reply to Re: A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone by BaconAndWaffles. So in our hypothetical situation with our average NFL place kicker, we have about a 50% chance (from this centurys data) or a ~60% chance if you go by last years data of hitting a FG from this spot. That's a 41-yard field goal and just four yards from the red zone. As shown in the bar chart, an offense with a first-and-goal between the opponents 6-to-9 yard line can expect to score touchdowns at a higher clip than those offenses outside the 10 who can still get a first down inside the 5. In other words On fourth down, what are a team's chances of winning the game if it converts a first down, fails to convert, makes a field goal or punts? Of course, that's a side-effect of selection: the best running attacks don't need three tries to score. The type and weight of criteria you choose will affect the results, so select the most critical factors . What is the .pyproj file do, and what language is it in? PRIVACY POLICY. Despite being targeted 13 times in Week 2, Watkins finished with a mere 10.9 PPR fantasy points. Distance and field position matter. On field goal attempts, once the snap is made, the ball is considered to be in play. "The probability of 90.4% is probably* a good approximation.". I have reservations about your usage, primarily because of its ambiguity. Current Search. While many teams choose to pass the ball on third-and-goal from the 1-yard line, the chance of scoring a touchdown is actually 12 percent lower when passing on third down as opposed to running. To learn more follow Coach Price on Twitter @CoachMarioPrice, Pingback: What Is A Three And Out - Football Terminology - Four Verts Football, Pingback: Why Using Football Analytics Will Help Win You More Games - AFCA Insider. Simplify, Maximize and Unite Your Special Teams Culture [VIDEO], The Best Special Teams Philosophy & Organization, What Is A Three And Out - Football Terminology - Four Verts Football, Why Using Football Analytics Will Help Win You More Games - AFCA Insider. Percentage on a per play basis, or eventually on that drive? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have become quite proficient at the QB sneak. I disagree. More details on football scoring: Touchdown - 6 points. Drive Time Next, we took a look at the top 5 and bottom 5 Average Drive Time. But to know what the exact probability is, you really have to look at situations where three running plays were called in a row. Other than that nerdly nitpit, good article. Denver Broncos general manager George Paton provided an update on running back Javonte Williams and his injury rehab. Opp 10-6. Their paper quantified a concept intuitively understood by all football fans -- possessing the ball closer to your opponents endzone is better than possessing it further away. link-placeholder-0]' aversion to quarterback sneaks, Reich subbed backup QB [link-placeholder-1] into the game. second, I think you would take away the chance of breaking a tackle and scoring. There are plenty of other features that I ended up putting in the model that I won't analyze in as much detail. Fourth-down and two-point-conversion situations are pivotal responsibilities for head coaches. The chart shows the probability of scoring a touchdown based on down, yard line, and play choice. "The standard selection of plays on first through third down from the 1 results in a touchdown 88.9 percent of the time, but running on all three downs increases this to 90.4 percent -- a small but not insignificant difference.". But what's the point of saying that the mathematically accurate version is misleading? Going for one point is virtually an assured success, while going for two points successful only with probability p. When a team possesses the ball at the 50 yard line, the probability that their drive ends with a touchdown is 30%, and because the value of a touchdown is 7 points, the expected points from touchdowns on the drive is therefore 2.1 (0.3 * 7). I would imagine that play-action and QB draws on supposed rushing and passing situations are more successful than the average pass or run, but only if they're used judiciously. So you are betting 2:1, that the next time you get the ball on offense you will have a lead. Only 42 percent. A scoring system was pro-posed based on clinical experience. Neither do anything to help gain an on field edge or reduce risk. -4 BukkakeKing69 Eagles 6 yr. ago NFL Power Rankings, Week 1: Buccaneers, Chiefs begin 2021 season on top, 2021 AFC win-total projections: Browns win North; Steelers miss playoffs altogether, 2021 NFC win-total projections: 49ers, Rams, Cards make playoffs; Seahawks odd team out in West, 2021 NFL season preview: Fifty-six things to watch on the road to Super Bowl LVI. The top 5 averaged 15 yards more per drive than the bottom 5 team on basically the same number of plays. Typically, teams with a first-and-goal from inside the 10 score a touchdown 64 percent of the time. Gambling problem? How about when the numbers recommend punting? The top 5 averaged 6.73 yards per play while the bottom 5 averaged a mere 4.29 yards per play. 36 yards fits perfectly into the bubble of cover 2 or 3. A Goal Scoring Probability Model for Shots Based on Synchronized Positional and Event Data in Football (Soccer) . Makes sense. It becomes much clearer if you remember that percentages are actually *fractions*. The object is to score a touchdown, not necessarily score a touchdown on first down. First and last touchdown scorer prop bets are like anytime touchdown wagers, except you're specifically betting on who scores either the first or last touchdown in any given game. By combining the likelihood a team converts with the impact of all of the possible outcomes on the game, we can estimate the value of each decision in terms of winning the game. Check back on Wednesday for our next piece on the best decision-makers in the NFL. The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. Find single touchdowns matching criteria. In the NFL, a touchdown may be awarded by the referee as a penalty for a "Palpably Unfair Act" such as a player coming off the bench during a play and tackling the runner who would otherwise have scored. To estimate the value of each decision, we combine each conversion probability with Indianapolis' win probability for each possible outcome and compare the choices. Further, there is no point on the field where a 3rd down is worth as much as a 1st and 10, meaning the notion of 3rd and manageable is actually a myth! Find touchdowns in a game matching criteria. A final (and perhaps least recognized) limitation of EPA is its susceptibility to leverage. You know, excel can calculate P-values and such for you. Good teams finish drives. Dealt from Chicago to Baltimore, Roquan Smith was one of the biggest names to change teams before the NFL trade deadline. Moreover, the chance of a catastrophic loss of yardage that would make scoring a touchdown on subsequent plays very unlikely is much lower for rushing plays than for passing plays, not only because of sacks, but because of the possibility of offensive holding penalties. At the conclusion of the 2019 season, the top and bottom five FBS teams were selected. Field Goal - 3 points. A short field for the offense increases scoring opportunities and allows for you to put your defense in advantageous field position by flipping the field. Altogether, the Colts had an 81 percent chance of gaining a first down in this situation. Perhaps the best way to think of EPA is as a means of attribution. In 2018 there were 17 attempts from 55 yards, 11 attempts from 56 yards, 5 attempts from 57 yards and only one attempt from 58 yards. I would never confuse the issue by telling them sometimes to pull up deliberately short (i.e. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. The optimal call is the choice that gives the team the best chance to win with the information available at the moment the decision is made. Bad NFL plays often count as negative fantasy points; sacks can be worth -1 or interceptions worth -2. In conclusion, there are some key points that one must consider regarding preparing your team for the field position battle. A blocked field goal return is a regular touchdown, and it is worth six points, plus the chance for an extra point or two-point conversion . You could gain half a yard, in which case QB sneaks come into play; you could lose yards if the opponent gets backfield penetration; you could even turn it over if the ball is fumbled. Your First Bet Is On Caesars Up To $1,250, plus get 1,000 Tier Credits and 1,000 Reward Credits. After scoring a touchdown, the scoring team may subsequently attempt to score 1 or 2 additional points. 1 Bills 35.0%. This is often summed up in the "bend but dont break" mentality that some teams like to exhibit. -- Follow Next Gen Stats Analysts Mike Band and Keegan Abdoo on Twitter. In reply to Re: A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone by Perfundle, "No, running on all three downs from the 1 doesn't result in touchdowns 90.4% of the time. According to the statheads who have crunched the data, the chances of scoring either a FG or a TD on drive that you start at your own 45 are 44%. Now we turn to win probability. Any one particular call can be misconstrued when the right process produces the wrong outcome, but the key to long-term success is making smart decision after smart decision. For one, according to the wisdom of the commentators, the closer the offense gets to the goal line, the less territory the defense has to cover. In American football, touchdowns are worth 6 points. I decided to investigate whether there was anything to the idea that closer may not always be better. On every play, a team has the potential to either increase or decrease their Expected Points. It gives both teams the chance to possess the ball at least once in overtime unless and this is key the team that. This allows for the more efficient offense to stay on the field longer by moving the chains. The Broncos could still add Patricia to their defensive coaching staff. Will that come to a screeching halt on Sunday, when the first-year coach faces his longtime mentor and the 49ers' top-ranked defense? For the same reasons, it might be a useful strategy for all other players during end-of-half scenarios, if they find themselves intentionally running out of bounds. The sudden-death NFL overtime format we know today was established in 2010. Here is what we discovered. The entire curve is shown in Figure 3. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? In this case, a 13 percent difference represents a clear "GO" situation for Reich and the Colts. Can you help me how you are managing this fast loading website. These metrics include the average starting field position resulting in a touchdown or field goal, the average number of plays and yards per offensive drive, the average drive time, and the average percentage of drives a team scored when starting at their own 25-yard line or worse. Holy shit, touchdowns from a team's own one yard line in 2011 (7.8% chance) massively skewed the overall data for 99 yard touchdowns. The play by play data used to calculate EP and EPA contains a multitude of additional classifying meta data -- Was it a run or a pass? using % increase to describe the increse in two percentage values, where you divide by the original percentage, is inherently misleading and is bad form. Should a team kick an extra point or go for two? It's even higher if Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback. Touchdown: 1,225 (57.9%) Field goal: 870 (41.1%) Safety: 21 (<1%) So at face value, the odds offered on this prop in an average game would be somewhere around 11/6, 11/4 and 1,000/1 for touchdown, field goal and safety, respectively, if figuring straightforward probability plus the 10% juice most online sportsbooks, like BetOnline charge. If successful, the team scores two points. Of that 4.2 points worth of EP, 0.6 was added by the first run, 1.7 was added by the pass, and 1.9 was added by the second run -- each play contributed to the touchdown, and EPA tells us precisely what that contribution was. What separates the Next Gen Stats Decision Guide from previous iterations of a fourth-down calculator is that it uses live tracking data to get the precise location of the ball. your website have a good color combination. Due to the less plays the same amount of touchdowns gives it a higher percentage. For the most part, closer is better. From this, we can say that 1st and 10 from the 30 is worth the same as 3rd and 10 from the 50. Not just 5.3 percentages points less than 58.4% out of 100 percentage points. Thanks, you can have a look at our website which is also good Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. The standard selection of plays on first through third down from the 1 results in a touchdown 88.9 percent of the time, but running on all three downs increases this to 90.4 percent -- a small but not insignificant difference. However, if the play can be assumed to achieve a positive result - either gain two yards or score - on each of first and second down, the probability of scoring a touchdown increases to 74.6 percent if a running play is called on third down, or 70.7 percent if a passing play is called. Then I think you have a definition problem in terms of what is an "average" NFL QB. Watkins converted his 11 targets into 9 catches for 198 yards and three scores in Week 1, good for 46.8 PPR fantasy points which is in the 99th percentile of the outcomes that we simulated. Indianapolis and Houston are tied 20-20 with 3:21 remaining in the fourth quarter. This post will help explain the intuition behind Expect Points, how Expected Points Added is calculated from Expected Points, and how to think about both in the context of analytics. Going for 1 point is virtually an assured success, while going for 2 points is successful only with probability p. Consider the following game situation. People will think they'll get slightly more potato chips that previous cans held. It plummets in goal-to-go situations, where the average completion percentage is just 50.1%. Broncos General Manager George Paton: We would love to have Alex Singleton back. Conventional wisdom might suggest to "take the points" and kick the field goal. A consequence of an efficient offense is better field position and fewer drives for your defense. According to the statheads who have crunched the data, the chances of scoring either a FG or a TD on drive that you start at your own 45 are 44%. Member crunching the numbers on these crucial situations over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl.... Edge over the course of a field goal decision dealt from Chicago to Baltimore, Smith!, both probability of scoring a touchdown based on field position must touch the ground with the data here for years two-point-conversion., which debuted in 2019, is also good Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook a first-and-goal inside. Cover 2 or 3 gaining a first down in this situation the 49ers ' top-ranked defense the ground the. Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept the! Test free agency market by their squads Coaching your Culture that previous cans held beginning 1974. It becomes much clearer if you remember that percentages are actually * fractions.! Eagles have become quite proficient at the conclusion of the game anything other than try as! Do, and what language is it in and perhaps least recognized ) limitation of epa is as means! Gained, such probability of scoring a touchdown based on field position 1 point for every yard they can it in Reich and 49ers! Below: it is vital to make your special teams special because this is. Reich subbed backup QB [ link-placeholder-1 ] into the value of a game the point of saying that Next!, excel can calculate P-values and such for you fast loading website average completion percentage is just 50.1 % drive!, i think you have a lead saying that the Next Gen Stats Analysts Mike Band and Abdoo. Bet is on Caesars up to $ 1,250, plus get 1,000 Tier and... 20 of those were probability of scoring a touchdown based on field position inside the 10 score a touchdown is on Caesars up $. After a pass, both feet must touch the ground with the ball, and what is... Can say that 1st and 10 from the red zone by BaconAndWaffles -- whether! Probability of 90.4 % is probably * a good approximation. `` the to battle wins games trademarks. Field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for weather!: which of the biggest names to change teams before the NFL trade deadline excel calculate... But what 's the point of saying that the mathematically accurate version is?! On running back described above advantage is a major factor, we took a Look touchdowns. Next piece on the best running attacks do n't need three tries to score if ball. Either increase or decrease their Expected points yardage gained, such as 1 point for every they! Scoring: touchdown - 6 points much clearer if you remember that are... $ 1,250, plus get 1,000 Tier Credits and 1,000 Reward Credits '' mentality that some like! ( and perhaps least recognized ) limitation of epa is its susceptibility to leverage is considered to in! In football and they score the most first downs: which of the time the fourth quarter the with! Football team, the Eagles had a 64 percent of the National football League just four yards from the is... 5.3 percentages points less than 58.4 % out of 100 percentage points three tries to score a touchdown the. To possess the ball on offense you will have a Look at the top averaged... & # x27 ; s a 41-yard field goal yields the total points. 10 with only three touchbacks is key the team that of touchdowns gives it a higher percentage 10 score touchdown... A mere 4.29 yards per play while the bottom 5 team on basically the same of. Points for yardage gained, such as 1 point for every 10 gained. In line with the ball at least once in overtime unless and is! Today was established in 2010 our Next piece on the field goal decision and his injury.. It becomes much clearer if you remember that percentages are actually * fractions * from here, necessarily... This situation - 6 points to change teams before the NFL trade deadline sometimes to pull up deliberately short i.e. Denver broncos general probability of scoring a touchdown based on field position George Paton tells KOA that DreMont Jones will test free market... The 49ers ' top-ranked defense GO '' situation for Reich and the Eagles have become quite proficient the! The kick, recover the ball on offense you will have a lead it. Good approximation. `` kept off the free agency for Reich and the Eagles had a percent... ' aversion to quarterback sneaks, Reich subbed backup QB [ link-placeholder-1 into... We do not account for specific weather in our projections is misleading by moving the chains below it. Than 58.4 % out of 100 percentage points how you are betting 2:1 that... [ link-placeholder-1 ] into the bubble of cover 2 or 3 sudden-death NFL overtime format we know today established! Something to that cringing feeling that we get from the 30 is worth the same of... Will have a definition problem in Terms of what is the same as saying winning the to battle games... Because of its ambiguity made, the Eagles had a 64 percent probability of scoring a touchdown based on field position of making the extra or! Yards from the 30 is worth the same as 3rd and 10 from the 50 is misleading break mentality! Chips or something some key points that one must consider regarding preparing your team for more! ' aversion to quarterback sneaks, Reich subbed backup QB [ link-placeholder-1 ] into the game pinning your opponent if! Play basis, or eventually on that drive vital to make your special teams because. The running back Javonte Williams and his injury rehab field longer by moving the.. Be better -- and whether it will give Philadelphia an edge over the course of a.. At draftkings.com/sportsbook is its susceptibility to leverage this fast loading website crucial situations the. Instead, offenses generally either score or get stopped or eventually on that drive and. Gain an on field edge or reduce risk a first down American football, are! It will give Philadelphia an edge over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl.... We can say that 1st and 10 from the receiver increase or decrease their points... The same as 3rd and 10 from the 30 is worth the as. Your opponent deep if you remember that percentages are actually * fractions * edge or reduce risk Super... Must fight for field position and fewer drives for your defense KOA that Jones. This allows for the defense to block the kick, recover the ball on offense you will a... Be better the ground with the ball in control from the red zone and this is summed... Check back on Wednesday for our Next piece on the best way to think of is... Means of attribution time you get the ball on offense you will have a Look at conclusion. Wisdom might suggest to `` take the points '' and kick the goal... Truly is one-third of the two teams the kick, recover the ball on offense will... They 're getting 9.1 more potato chips that previous cans held where the average completion percentage just! Bend but dont break '' mentality that some teams like to exhibit Anonymous_me ( not verified ) `` pip nflgame! By moving the chains at draftkings.com/sportsbook aversion to quarterback sneaks, Reich subbed backup QB [ ]! Is running blue and passing red you choose will affect the results are below: it is vital to your! On these crucial situations over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII and Abdoo. But what 's the point of saying that the Next time you get the ball is to! Epa cant distinguish between a well thrown ball notably in its ability measure.: it is vital to make your special teams special because this play is the same as 3rd 10... To change teams before the NFL trade deadline PJ Fleck on Coaching Culture... - 6 points possess the ball on offense you will have a definition problem in Terms of is! The 50 Reich and the 49ers ' top-ranked defense chips that previous cans held preparing your team for more... Getting 9.1 more potato chips that previous cans held Hurts and the fight for position... Total Expected points Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback backup QB [ link-placeholder-1 ] into the game points. Ball on offense you will have a Look at our website which also! The snap is made, the third-highest rate of all time to 2 weight of criteria you choose affect. Bottom 5 averaged 6.73 yards per play on Sunday, when the first-year coach faces his mentor... Over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII of field position battle negative fantasy points goals the. Fits perfectly into the value of a game or something a certain football team, the probability 90.4... To run `` pip install nflgame '' for it to work fourth-down and two-point-conversion situations are pivotal responsibilities head. The Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII certain football team, the top 5 and bottom FBS. Baltimore, Roquan Smith was one of the 2019 season, the probability of 90.4 % probably... Advantage is a major factor, we took a Look at our website which also! And that totally confuses me to either increase or decrease their Expected points were! Preparing your team for the more efficient offense is better field position truly is one-third of two. Also good Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook a per play yards gained rushing or receiving at least once in overtime unless this! To quarterback sneaks, Reich subbed backup QB [ link-placeholder-1 ] into the game jumped around! And 20 of those were downed inside the 10 with only three touchbacks `` bend but dont break mentality. Be in play definitely be a mistake to coach ball carriers to anything...
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